The Art of Predicting the Future: Measuring "Dangerousness"

By

We like to think of the law as a set of firm, historical facts. You either committed a crime, or you didn't. You either qualify for a right, or you are disqualified.

But right now, the Department of Justice is grappling with a much more "revelatory" question: Can the law predict the future?

In July 2025, the DOJ proposed new rules to revive the long-dormant gun rights restoration program under 18 U.S.C. § 925(c). The core of this program hinges on a single, heavy word: Dangerousness. If a person with a prior disqualifying record wants their rights restored, they must prove they are no longer "dangerous."

The Rest of the Story The surprise isn't that we are asking the question—it’s how we are trying to answer it. We are moving away from mere "gut feelings" by judges and toward a sophisticated, albeit controversial, blend of clinical art and data science.

In a recent piece I wrote for the Duke Second Thoughts blog (which was also cross-posted on the Wyoming University Center for Firearms Research Forum), I dive into the specific rubrics being used to "measure" a human soul’s propensity for violence. From the widely used HCR-20v3 to the more bespoke PF-10 specifically designed for firearms evaluations, we are witnessing the "economization" of human behavior—trying to assign a metric to the risk of a future act.

Is it possible to truly measure "dangerousness," or are we just creating a more academic version of a crystal ball?

Read the full analysis at Duke’s Center for Firearms Law: Restoration of Gun Rights and Measuring Individual Dangerousness


Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

Careful With Those Lawyer Jokes....

By
Image
I kind of enjoy lawyer jokes, but the media tried to make it sound like this was a case of egregious overlawyering. Notice at the end of the article that these guys complain they've been standing outside Long Island courthouses mocking lawyers " for years " without being arrested: "The pair said that for years they have stood outside courthouses on Long Island and mocked lawyers." Duh. You didn't expect one of those evil, assertive lawyers to get sick of it and complain at some point? As a practitioner, I didn't enjoy standing in line outside the courthouse in the freezing New England weather any more than the rest of the people - actually probably less, because most people appearing on charges seemed to bring friends and family with them to keep them company. These protestors really must not have enough to do! Get a job or something! If somebody finally decided he'd had enough, how was he supposed to know these guys were there that day fo...
Read more

Special-Interest Law Schools

By
I mentioned this article earlier in passing. The link in the title leads to the relatively even-handed treatment of Jerry Falwell's new Christian law school in Legal Affairs. (The first class of students there must have completed their first set of final exams by now). I would not be interested in teaching there myself, and worry about their bar passage rate, etc., but most of the criticisms in the media have been overblown. I like special interest law schools. They form a nice complement to the rest of our institutions, the 200 or so law schools that collectively graduate nearly 40,000 new but mostly generic practitioners every year. It enriches our legal system to have a subset of lawyers whose skills are devoted to and oriented around a particular social cause, instead of whatever case walks in the door and pays the bills. (My stint as a legal aid lawyer left me biased, though). It enriches social movements and NGO's to have lawyers who do more than take occasional pro bo...
Read more

BLOGGING AGAIN

By
Image
I am back from my summer vacation and can start blogging again! More to come... Here's a couple pictures of me with my youngest son, Jonathan, enjoying the summer...more pictures of the fam are parked on my family's photo blog... I was traveling in May and my electric razor broke on the trip, and I decided to wait until I got home to shave.
Read more