The Art of Predicting the Future: Measuring "Dangerousness"
We like to think of the law as a set of firm, historical facts. You either committed a crime, or you didn't. You either qualify for a right, or you are disqualified. But right now, the Department of Justice is grappling with a much more "revelatory" question: Can the law predict the future? In July 2025, the DOJ proposed new rules to revive the long-dormant gun rights restoration program under 18 U.S.C. § 925(c). The core of this program hinges on a single, heavy word: Dangerousness . If a person with a prior disqualifying record wants their rights restored, they must prove they are no longer "dangerous." The Rest of the Story The surprise isn't that we are asking the question—it’s how we are trying to answer it. We are moving away from mere "gut feelings" by judges and toward a sophisticated, albeit controversial, blend of clinical art and data science. In a recent piece I wrote for the Duke Second Thoughts blog (which was also cross-posted on t...